Not a single retail outlet ran dry. Every household that wanted a cylinder got one. India faced neither a 1991 moment nor a 2013 one. Macroeconomic stability held. This was not an accident, and it was not luck alone. It was the work of a government that chose to act as it had during the pandemic -- deliberately and gradually, building one measure upon another rather than reaching for a single dramatic lever, explains V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
Indian basket at 6-month low of $49.11 a bbl
Higher discounts on crude oil offered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to wean India away from Russian crude may soon see Indian refiners ramping up purchases from the Gulf nation, officials at multiple refiners said. They also pointed to the recent agreement on trade settlement in national currencies signed between India and the UAE as a reason for this. "While discussions are underway, the UAE has offered discounts on crude, which will be more than that of the current level of Russian discounts.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
A convoy of India-bound ships carrying crude oil and gas was stopped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to several vessels returning to the Persian Gulf.
With Iran reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme, India is expected to be one of the major gainers.
The Indian rupee plummeted to an all-time low of 95.80 against the US dollar, settling at 95.66, driven by elevated crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, despite potential RBI intervention and import curbs on gold.
The United States has encouraged India to purchase Russian oil already at sea to mitigate supply shortages and price increases amid the West Asia conflict, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. This move is described as a short-term effort to stabilise the market without altering Washington's policy towards Russia.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, describing it as "a big step" in efforts to increase global pressure on Moscow.
The US has granted India permission to buy Russian oil already in transit to ease global supply pressures amidst the West Asia conflict. This decision comes after India agreed to halt sanctioned Russian oil purchases and substitute them with US oil.
The price of the Indian basket of crude oil jumped as much as 78 per cent to cross $50 a barrel last week, from a multi-year low of $28 in January.
The Indian government has refuted claims of fuel shortages, asserting that the country possesses approximately 60 days of fuel stock cover and that all petrol pumps are adequately stocked and operating normally.
'Every period of excessive optimism eventually gives way to a correction, while periods of extreme pessimism often create the best investment opportunities.'
Industry leaders at an AIMA panel discussion emphasised the need for businesses to quickly adapt to changing market conditions and invest in technologies like artificial intelligence to build resilience and achieve long-term growth. They highlighted the current era of uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and rapid regulatory changes, stressing that tactical responses are as crucial as long-term strategy.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Friday after a two-day rally, tracking a weak trend in global peers, as the US-Iran conflict continues to be a key overhang for the markets. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for March 27, 2026.
India has no plans to ration fuel supplies despite ongoing disruptions in global energy markets, according to a top oil ministry official. The country has maintained adequate inventories of crude products and LPG while diversifying imports to manage supply risks.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar defends India's purchase of Russian oil, stating it is not the largest purchaser and that the US had previously supported such actions to stabilize energy markets. He also addresses concerns about tariffs and trade relations with the US.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil prices, and global trends will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Foreign investor activity and rupee movement will also be crucial.
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
India's exports experienced their steepest fall in five months, declining by 7.44 per cent in March to $38.92 billion, primarily due to trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, with shipments to West Asia contracting by over 50 per cent.
Foreign secretary Vikram Misri on Friday shared key details on agreements between India and the UAE, stating that the UAE will store up to 30 million barrels of crude oil in India's strategic petroleum reserve following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, mirroring a global market rally and a drop in crude oil prices below USD 100 per barrel, driven by renewed hopes of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran.
Oil firms' borrowings could fall by up to Rs 15,000 cr, govt's subsidy bill by 12% .
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
An $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore.
An influential Republican senator has asked India to "just quit" buying oil from sanctions-hit Iran.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
'Healthy double-digit returns are still possible, though a sharp rally is unlikely.'
Indian stock markets tumbled sharply with the Sensex falling 800 points and nearly 4 lakh crore wiped out in a single session. Here are the 6 key factors, including rupee weakness and global cues, behind the crash.
Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US.
24 Indian-flagged vessels with 677 Indian seafarers were currently located west of the Strait of Hormuz, and four vessels with 101 Indian seafarers were stationed east of the strategic waterway.
An Indian-flagged crude tanker safely departed from the UAE's Fujairah after loading oil, despite an attack on the oil terminal. The Indian government is closely monitoring the situation in West Asia to ensure stable fuel supplies and maritime safety.
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
The basket of crude oil that India buys has hit a decade high of $121 per barrel, but retail selling prices of petrol and diesel continue to remain frozen. The Indian basket on June 9 touched $121.28, matching levels seen in February/March 2012, according to data available from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). As per the PPAC, the Indian basket of crude oil averaged $111.86 per barrel between February 25 and March 29 - the immediate period after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent oil on fire.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included M&M, SBI, Yes Bank, Asian Paints, HDFC, Tata Steel and L&T, shedding up to 2.55 per cent. The broader NSE Nifty settled 79.80 points, or 0.72 per cent, down at 10,996.10.
